Anne (ajva) wrote,

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After Glasgow East...

It might be late, I might have spent a bizarre day drinking alcohol with three different social groups of people in three different places, but if you'll forgive me for venturing an opinion just before I retire to bed, as is the proper thing to do at this time of night, here's my thought:...

The scale of the next general election defeat for Labour/win for Cameron is going to be greater than Blair's victory in 1997.

The next general election will happen in 2010, as Gordon Brown pushes his calendar to the wire, but unfortunately for him the economic downturn will still be going on then, and badly, so he won't be able to avoid it being an issue. Our economy will be in utter crisis, with the unions (perfectly understandably) crying blue murder about wage levels, unemployment will shoot through the roof, and then the Tories will come in and rein back public spending like there's no tomorrow. Nine years (it could take 14-18) later the economy will be in better shape and people will be unutterably pissed off with the social right-wing unfairness of the Tories, and if Labour's found an inspirational leader by then there's a chance they might get back in. If not, there's still a chance we might get a charismatic leader from the LibDem side.

Meanwhile, the Scots will still be bickering about independence, but somehow will have found that consensus politics suits them regardless, and will be busy quietly building a modern 21st Century country while nobody else in the UK notices.

What do you think?
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